Poker Stratagy, The Coin Flip
I once wrote a piece on a poker forum about getting all your chips in the pot pre-flop, with the best hand is not always the ideal strategy. Here is the situation I described.
I’m at a table of 9 and quickly realize I am the best player at the table. You’ve been there, when you know you can run over the table. A bunch of calling stations that fold to any raise unless they’ve got a pair or an ace and if they happen to get a great hand, they make it clear.
Anyway, so you site at this table and are collecting chips and building a nice stack. Now a new player joins the table and he has about as many chips as you.
For argument sake, let’s say he pushes all his chips in and you are positive that he has Ace-King. Don’t ask me how you know that but you do! OK, you’ve got pocket jacks. Do you call? You’d be the favorite! Approximate odds, you have a 56% chance of winning.
If it is early in the tournament, I say you fold. I have done this, I will keep dong this and it works. I don’t need slight mathematical edge at this point, not against a guy who could knock me out of the tournament with so much other dead money out there.
One of the main arguments I had was that the Casinos in Los Vegas have very small edge and yet they make millions. While this is true, for that to work it would require millions of bets a day. In a poker tournament, these coin-flip situations happen to a single player a hand full of time in one night, not enough to make a slight edge worth it. Eventually I will need to take chances.
You know who takes these changes early on? People who have no confidence in their post-flop play!
Do you wonder why, in most cases, the chip leader early on doesn’t even make the final table? It is because he (or she) takes chances with coin-flips, getting lucky a few times but eventually is catches up with him. Even if you are a 60% chance to win, 4 out of 10 times you will lose and in poker it only takes once to lose.
Like everything in poker, all situations vary. There are times when I will take a chance early on, just like there is a time when I’ll call a raise with a 7-2 off-suit. (yes
